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The 90th Academy Awards ceremony, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), will honor the best films of 2017 and will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California at 5:00 p.m. PST on March 4, 2018. The ceremony will take place after its usual late-February date to avoid conflicting with the 2018 Winter Olympics. During the ceremony, AMPAS will present Academy Awards (commonly referred to as Oscars) in 24 categories. The ceremony will be televised in the United States by ABC, produced by Michael De Luca and Jennifer Todd and directed by Glenn Weiss. Comedian Jimmy Kimmel will host for a second consecutive year, making Kimmel the first person to host back-to-back ceremonies since Billy Crystal in 1997 and 1998.
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Oscars 2018: Our Final Predictions
Vanity Fair gives our best guess at who will win in every category—and explains why we think Get Out could go all the way.
he long and winding road that is awards season will finally come to an end March 4, when the 2018 Oscars—hosted, for the second year in a row, by Jimmy Kimmel—anoint a new class of winners. But while some of those victors seem pre-ordained—all four acting categories, for example, appear to be pretty much sewn up already—others are much less certain, including the biggest prize of all: best picture.
So, who will walk away with Oscar gold on Sunday night? Below, our crack team of experts gives our best guesses in every category—including the shorts. And feel free to use our picks while filling out your interactive or printable Oscar ballot; we won’t tell.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
In a year when most of the big awards appear to be locked in, best picture—the biggest prize of all—is refreshingly up in the air. Conventional wisdom holds that there are only five films with a real chance of winning: Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards. But it’s hard to be sure of even that, given the weirdness of the preferential ballot. (Long story short: voters rank the nominees; there’s no winner until one movie collects over 50 percent of the vote; and you get there by re-allocating the second-place—or lower—votes of bottom performers as they are eliminated one by one.)
Given its successful run throughout awards season, Three Billboards would be the favorite here, were it not for the fact that its director, Martin McDonagh, was snubbed in the best-director category. (Ben Affleck’s Argo won without a director nod in 2013, but that year was bananas.) Since Guillermo del Toro is almost certain to win best director, many people think The Shape of Water will win here, too—but then, many people thought La La Land would beat Moonlight, and The Revenant would beat Spotlight. Our analysis of voter sentiment, however, makes us think Get Out could pull off an upset. The people who love it really love it; it’s become a rallying point for people of color in Hollywood; and it’s a likely second pick for fans of The Post, Phantom Thread, and Call Me by Your Name—all of which are liable to be eliminated. We’ll be in the opposite of the Sunken Place if it turns out this way, but honestly: your guess may be as good as ours here.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
The good news for Christopher Nolan is that he finally got nominated for best director, after nearly two decades of lauded and commercially successful filmmaking that for various reasons—too small at first, then too genre—hadn’t caught the Academy’s attention. The bad news is that another beloved, idiosyncratic, commercial auteur, Guillermo del Toro, appears to have the edge this year. Dunkirk’s technical mastery is undeniable, but del Toro’s Shape of Water infuses all that same care and precision with a lot of big, gooey feeling, a sentimentality that Dunkirk scrupulously avoids. Nolan is still the spoiler here, but this one is del Toro’s to lose.
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
There was a time when this felt like it would be Sally Hawkins’s category to lose. There are still people gunning for Saoirse Ronan. And at least one of us left an early screening of The Post thinking that this could be the year Meryl Streep adds yet another statuette to her collection. But all came before Frances McDormand won every precursor award under the sun for her fierce, unapologetic, and frequently unsettling performance as the very angry, very resourceful mother of a murdered teenager. McDormand’s performance, already resonant in the #MeToo moment, has become only more relevant in the wake of the Parkland shooting and the resulting outpouring of grief, anger, and activism. Rest assured, they’re etching this nameplate as we speak.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Timothée Chalamet is the biggest breakout star of this awards season, and the recipient of scores of critics’ awards for his attention-grabbing performance in Call Me by Your Name. But he may be the victim of one of the Academy’s long-standing biases, an unwritten rule so entrenched that no amount of new members has yet overridden it: young men are rarely ever nominated for best actor Oscars, and almost never win them. The youngest best actor winner in history is Adrien Brody, who was 29 when he won for The Pianist—seven years older than Chalamet is now. Even if age weren’t a factor, since the Golden Globes, Chalamet has been continually dwarfed by Oldman, who is in every way a classic best actor winner—a revered industry veteran who underwent a drastic transformation to play a revered real-life person. For a time, Chalamet seemed like a potential dark-horse spoiler, but the best picture nomination for Darkest Hour—and the curious failure of the assault allegations in his past, which were dismissed in court, to affect his campaign—have made that seem virtually impossible. The award has been Oldman’s to lose since Darkest Hour premiered to raves in Telluride in early September. He shows no signs of faltering now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
For a time this seemed like a two-way battle, with television and theater veteran Laurie Metcalf, nominated for playing a complicated but loving mother to a willful daughter in Lady Bird, facing off against Allison Janney, nominated for playing a complicated and never-loving mother to a willful daughter in I, Tonya. In theory, this should still be a close race: Lady Bird is a best picture nominee; I, Tonya is a surprising best editing nominee; and both movies have gained pop culture traction. But since the Golden Globes in early January, Janney has run away with every possible award, building up the kind of traction that’s difficult to lose, especially when you’re a likable industry veteran whom everyone would be happy to see with an Oscar. Some Lady Bird believers may stand by Metcalf, but Janney has spent months practicing her inevitable Oscar speech.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
For a long while, it looked like Willem Dafoe had this in the bag for his lovable, simple, and shaggy work in the critically adored The Florida Project. But it’s easy to forget that critics groups aren’t the Academy—nor are they the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, nor the Screen Actors Guild, nor the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. All of those supporting-actor awards have been unanimously given to Sam Rockwell, who has a bigger, flashier role than Dafoe’s—and whose character arc, from witless racist antagonizer all the way to slightly better person, seems to appeal to awards-voting bodies in search of some hope for those currently lost to Trumpism. It’s hard to beat that narrative—however convincing or not—in this troubled year.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There are two scripts that really got people talking this year, and this award should go to the writer of one of them. Will it be Martin McDonagh, whose Three Billboards screenplay took a blue-hot blowtorch to some of the most incendiary topics in American life (racism, police brutality, criminal justice, the abuse of women)—and wound up singing its author, after a handful of critics called the film out for its insensitivity to racial dynamics in the U.S.? Or will it be Jordan Peele, who smuggled a brutal critique of American racism and liberal pseudo-support into the mainstream by wrapping it in the audience-friendly conventions of horror. Get Out’s genre genes could hurt it with the frequently snotty Academy, but we’re still confident it will find the votes to beat McDonagh’s brilliant but problematic display of pyrotechnics.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
Scott Frank and James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
It was a strange year for adapted screenplays, with James Ivory’s script for Call Me by Your Name, based on André Aciman’s novel, the only lock for a nomination. Beyond that, this category contains a funny olio of broad biopic comedy, superhero drama, gambling thriller, and hefty literary adaptation. All are worthy nominees in their way, but Ivory’s work is probably still the front-runner—as perhaps the sole representative win for one of 2017’s most critically lauded movies, and as a career-capping recognition of an 89-year-old industry legend who’s somehow never won an Oscar.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
If it were the winter of 2017, perhaps Alec Baldwin’s pint-sized, Trumpian corporate raider could squeak to victory on topical appeal alone. Unfortunately for that movie, we’re in a new, more hopeful age that’s taken to looking for hope wherever we can find it—and Pixar’s vibrant, Mexico-set fable is overflowing with joy, even as it tackles tough issues of loss and legacy. Remember it, because Oscar voters surely will.
BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden
You don’t have to be a subtitle-obsessed cinephile to enjoy the close competition in this year’s foreign-language-film race. There are three titles with legit shots at gold, starting with Lebanon’s The Insult, a sincere but tough-minded drama that shows how the smallest incident can spiral into a crisis when the people on both sides are nursing historical grievances that blind them to their antagonists’ humanity (in case you thought America had a monopoly on that dynamic). Next is Sweden’s The Square, a black comedy that relentlessly explores the complete inability of modern urban humans to overcome their herd instincts and actually help one another out. And last is Chile’s A Fantastic Woman, which follows a trans woman in the agonizing aftermath of her lover’s sudden death, showing us all the ways, subtle and otherwise, that she is marginalized and tormented. Featuring a career-making performance by the trans actress Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman is the kind of film that can change the way we see an entire, misunderstood class of people—and for that reason, we give it an edge over the very worthy competition.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus (Small Enough to Jail)
Faces/Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
The movie once widely believed to be a lock to win this category—Brett Morgen’s Jane—didn’t even end up getting a nomination, which makes it difficult to single out a sure-thing victor. Even so, we’re throwing our weight behind Faces/Places. Yes, it’s the least topical entry in a category that often skews newsy—but it’s also got an unstoppable poster woman in Agnès Varda, the beloved French New Wave legend who doubles as the oldest person ever to be nominated for a competitive Oscar. That makes her the sentimental favorite here—and when have the Oscars ever shied away from sentiment?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Neither of the unconventional lovers at the center of Guillermo del Toro’s dreamy romance can speak, which gives an added weight to Alexandre Desplat’s otherworldly compositions as they underscore Elisa and her aquatic paramour’s pas de deux. Perhaps the last awards-season film that relied on music to this extent was The Artist, which walked away with both best original score and best picture; though The Shape of Water faces stiff competition, especially from first-time Oscar nominee Jonny Greenwood (for Phantom Thread) and perpetual nominee Hans Zimmer (for his experimental Dunkirk score), expect it to pull off the same trick (and underwater, at that).
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
You would be forgiven for a sense of déjà vu in this category. For the second year in a row, we have a rousing earworm from a Disney film—last year Moana’s “How Far I’ll Go,” this year Coco’s “Remember Me” —up against the wunderkind duo of Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, who won last year for La La Land’s “City of Stars,” went on to win two Tonys and a Grammy for Dear Evan Hansen, and are now back with “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman. But Coco is a bigger hit, and “Remember Me” a much more essential part of it. We’re giving the edge to Coco’s Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez, who, like Pasek and Paul, are previous winners—but for the monster hit “Let It Go” from Frozen. Those are credentials that are hard to argue with.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Dunkirk could well have both sound categories in the bag, though this one seems a surer thing than sound mixing. There’s a slight chance that editing could go instead to a movie with slightly more fun sound design—the stylish vrooms of Baby Driver, perhaps, or the chittering creatures of The Last Jedi. (Can’t a fish nun get some Oscar love?) But no, talk like that is silly; Dunkirk is the serious sort of capital-f Film that wins technical Oscars by the score, and sound editing should be no different.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
When in doubt on either of the sound categories, go with the war movie—it’s one reason why Dunkirk is a safe bet both here and sound editing. But sound mixing sometimes diverges for its sibling to honor a musical, being the category that honors not just how the sounds are made, but how they are layered together—like how, say, a classic pop song might work with the vrooms and slams of a car-chase scene and character dialogue all at once. Baby Driver is up against a heavy hitter in Dunkirk, but we think it has just enough extra pizazz to put it over the edge.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
These are some good-looking movies, and all have a reason to win—Beauty and the Beast was a mega-hit that enraptured a generation of children, Blade Runner could read as a misunderstood aesthetic masterpiece, Darkest Hour’s look enlivened a straightforward period piece, Dunkirk is Dunkirk. But only The Shape of Water is likely to win other, “bigger” prizes on Oscar night, and it seems likely that its production design will get swept up in that surge.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
There are two options for making history in this category. Mudbound’s Rachel Morrison is the first women ever nominated here, and would of course become the first woman to win—a fine capper to the #MeToo Oscar season. But there is another staggering historical oversight at play this year that will probably be rectified: Roger Deakins, nominated for the 14th time for Blade Runner 2049, will finally win a dang Oscar. It’s not the most popular of the films he’s worked on, or maybe even his most stunning work. But absent a last-minute surge from Dunkirk’s Hoyte van Hoytema—and hey, there’s a good argument that Dunkirk could win best picture; anything is possible!—Deakins has by far the most powerful narrative going into Oscar night. It’s time for one of Oscar’s great losing streaks to end. Hopefully Morrison and her fellow female cinematographers are not at the beginning of another one.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Gary Oldman says he spent more than 200 hours in a makeup chair over the course of making Darkest Hour—and that’s the kind of dedication that resonates with Academy voters, particularly when the end result is this seamless. The slim, movie-star-handsome Oldman’s transformation into a jowly Churchill is complete without being distracting, thanks to sure-footed work from makeup artist Kazuhiro Tsuji (who returned to the film industry after a years-long hiatus specifically to transform Oldman into the beloved P.M.) Expect Tsuji to waltz away with this one.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
How could a movie about a fussy fashion designer not win this category? Well, Coco Before Chanel didn’t in 2010—it lost to The Young Victoria, which might put some fear into Phantom Thread designer Mark Bridges’s heart. (After all, there’s another Queen Victoria movie in the mix this year as well.) Really, though, it would be a huge upset to see any other film run away with this award, which was practically built for Reynolds Woodcock—though if anybody has the power to snatch the prize away, it’s Luis Sequeira and his perfectly tailored Shape of Water silhouettes.
BEST FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
An overall Shape of Water sweep could help the film secure this category as well, which has a long history of correlating with best picture—though editing and picture haven’t actually synced up since Argo won both in 2013. (In fact, that’s the only time this decade the two awards have gone to the same movie.) It seems more likely, then, that regardless of what happens with best picture, editing will go to Dunkirk’s Lee Smith—the longtime Christopher Nolan collaborator responsible for crafting a film that manages to stay just this side of unbearably tense for a taut 106 minutes.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
There was one a film trilogy, featuring outstanding special effects and a central performance from Andy Serkis, that failed twice in an Oscar category before finally taking home the prize on the third try. That trilogy was The Lord of the Rings, which won best picture for its third installment—and there are plenty of people at Weta Digital who are hoping history can repeat itself here with War for the Planet of the Apes. Serkis’s performance as lead ape Caesar has been widely praised since the first film in this reboot debuted in 2011, but the effects team—among them Joe Letteri, a three-time winner for Rings—has lost out to Hugo and Interstellar. With no best picture nominees in the mix this time and no more chances to give Caesar his due, the Academy has no reason not to go for Apes at last.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Edith and Eddie”
“Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“Heroin(e)”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”
In a rare turn of events that suggests maybe we’re not living in the darkest timeline after all, this category—usually home to the most devastating and despair-inducing glimpses inside war zones and historical atrocities—includes zero films about the Holocaust, Syria, or murder. That said, all of them deal with distinctly tough stuff, from the forced separation of a nonagenarian couple (“Edith and Eddie”) to an artist struggling with mental illness (“Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405”) to police brutality (“Traffic Stop”). There’s no determining which of these issues is most important, so we’ll go with the film we think is best: “Heroin(e),” which manages to include some uplift in its story about three women in Huntington, West Virginia, finding their own ways to combat the opioid epidemic. It’s also on Netflix, which means that even voters who don’t open their shorts' screeners can find it easily.
BEST SHORT FILM — LIVE ACTION
“Dekalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”
Oscar voting opened less than a week after the school shooting in Parkland, Florida—which has nothing to do with anything except here, where the exceptional short “Dekalb Elementary” depicts a thwarted school shooting in an intense, superbly acted 20 minutes. There are no real stinkers in this group, but the immediacy of “Dekalb Elementary” should stick with voters and propel it to the top.
BEST SHORT FILM — ANIMATED
“Dear Basketball”
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”
Pixar, as usual, is represented here with the charming short “Lou,” but for once they are not the biggest name in the bunch. That would be Kobe Bryant, who produced, narrates, and is the subject of “Dear Basketball,” ostensibly a love letter to his chosen sport that also acts as something as a career tribute to Bryant himself. The pencil drawn animation is exquisite and done by Glen Keane, a Disney animation veteran whom many animators might be eager to see with a career tribute. “Dear Basketball” has the talent—and the campaign muscle—to win out here. If we had to pick a spoiler, we’d go with “Garden Party,” a hyper-realistic look at some amorous frogs meeting up in a Hollywood-style mansion that is a bit more ominous than it initially lets on.
